Page 50Page 51
Page 50
As G7 leaders gather in the picturesque city of Taormina, Italy, the problems they are confronted with might seem less than urgent. Yet at this time of increasing instability and global uncertainty, they are facing a daunting set of challenges. Least not that posed by Climate Change. With the landmark Paris Agreement entering into force on November 4th, 2016, global attention in the first half of 2017 should have focused on how to implement this landmark deal. Yet increasing global uncertainty means the validity of the Paris agreement itself, representing 197 countries collectively pledging to limit global warming to well below two degrees Celsius (2°C), may now be in doubt. However, there may be a silver lining. The scale of the ambition demonstrated in Paris was monumental and represented an historic turning point and the culmination of 23 years of climate negotiations. Instead of derailing this process, the uncertain geopolitical environment may have increased the imperative to act. Capital allocated today will determine the future shape of the economy; whether we move further away from climate security or instead, towards a future that is cleaner, safer, more prosperous and inclusive. The individual plans that signatories to the Paris Agreement summited, called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), detail how they intend to address Climate Change. In their first iteration, these NDCs may not collectively realise the full ambition of the Paris Agreement, but the agreement demonstrates a growing momentum for climate action and includes a process for strengthening, essentially ratcheting up, contributions over time. Countries are expected to produce new NDCs by 2020, and every five years thereafter. In addition, through the Copenhagen pledge, developed countries have agreed to mobilising US$100billion per year by 2020 to assist developing countries in both adapting to a changing climate and reduce their own emissions. Countries also agreed that by 2025 there will be a new quantified climate finance goal, starting with at least US$100 billion per year. Finance is integral to enabling effective climate action as demanded by the ambition of the Paris Agreement. Meeting emission and adaptation targets will essentially require a restructuring of the global economy; upgrading inefficient and climate vulnerable infrastructure, scaling up renewable energy generation, improving energy efficiency, modal shifts in transport and new forms of agricultural practice and land-use management. The overall scale of this challenge is more than significant. The International Energy Agency estimates that between 2015 and 2030 investment in the order of US$16 trillion will be required to realign the global energy system with a 2°C economy. When the effects of a growing global population and middle class are considered, between 2015 and 2030, the demand for new, sustainable infrastructure could exceed US$90 trillion1. Ensuring this new infrastructure does not lock us in to a higher emissions trajectory but instead supports the transition to a low-carbon economy is estimated to have a net incremental cost of around US$4trillion2. In the buildings sector alone meeting the Paris commitments will require about US$300 billion annually by 2020 for financing energy efficiency retrofits. ERIC USHER, HEAD, THE UNITED NATIONS ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME FINANCE INITIATIVE (UNEP FI)MAINTAINING THE MOMENTUM OF GREEN FINANCE“CAPITAL ALLOCATED TODAY WILL DETERMINE THE FUTURE SHAPE OF THE ECONOMY; WHETHER WE MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM CLIMATE SECURITY OR INSTEAD, TOWARDS A FUTURE THAT IS CLEANER, SAFER, MORE PROSPEROUS AND INCLUSIVE ”050 FINANCE AND INVESTMENT